Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States - A Simulation Modelling Approach
According to this agent-based simulation model, social distancing had a major effect on COVID-19 occurrence in New York; and a 1-week delay in implementing these measures could have increased number of confirmed cases from 203,261 to 1,407,600.
Source:
Annals of Internal Medicine
SPS commentary:
In a related editorial, authors’ state this study makes a strong case for recognising the threat of a disease outbreak as early as possible and taking decisive action. Authors’ highlight that with mass vaccination months, if not years, away and few effective therapies, the timely use of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will reduce morbidity and mortality from COVID-19.