Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study
Modelling study projected a median unmitigated burden of 23 million clinical cases and 350,000 deaths due to COVID-19 in the UK by December 2021. The most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120,000 cases and 50,000 deaths.
Source:
The Lancet Public Health
SPS commentary:
Authors also state that intensive interventions with lockdown periods would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent health-care demand exceeding availability.
A related commentary concludes that economic analyses evaluating the costs and benefits of various options for the COVID-19 response including combinations of these strategies over the next year or two are urgently needed, and are forthcoming, whilst waiting for the development of highly effective drugs or a vaccine.