Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study

UK study (n=3,862,012) estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category (13.7% were > 70 years and 6.3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition) with an estimated 1-year mortality of 4.46% (95% CI 4.41–4.51).

SPS commentary:

The authors make the following additional estimations:

 

  • In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with a relative risk (RR) of 1.5, four with an RR of 2.0, and seven with an RR of 3.0.

 

  • In a mitigation scenario (i.e. less rigorous and voluntary measures), there would be 18,374 excess deaths with an RR of 1.5, 36,749 with an RR of 2.0, and 73,498 with an RR of 3.0.

 

  • In a do-nothing scenario, there would be 146,996 excess deaths with an RR of 1.5, 293,991 with an RR of 2.0, and 587,982 with an RR of 3.0.

The Lancet