Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study

This research found differences in the epidemiology of COVID-19 as the epidemic spread across China. Time from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased, and the mean incubation period was estimated as 5.2 days (95% CI 1.8-12.4).

SPS commentary:

The authors report that the effective reproduction number dropped below 1 by the end of January 2020 in 9 Chinese provinces; this suggests significant slowing of local transmission weeks from the first signs in most provinces. A related comment notes that the causes of this are not addressed but are likely to be due to the strict government-imposed restrictions on the movement of people and social gatherings, symptom screening, testing and quarantine programmes, and personal behaviour change to reduce transmission.


The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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