Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Modelling study estimates a total fertility rate of 1.66 in 2100, and a global population peak in 2064 of 9.73 billion, reducing to 8.79 billion in 2100. Authors state that trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception are hastening the decline in fertility.

SPS commentary:

Two related commentaries discuss this paper.  The first highlights potential consequent human capital shortage in some countries following lower fertility rates (e.g. Spain and Japan), with the second focussing on sub-Saharan Africa population trends which suggest an increased projected size by 2100.


The Lancet

Resource links:

Comment 1

Comment 2