Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study

Assuming mean serial interval of 4.8 days, incremental benefit of individual quarantine over active monitoring was substantial as a result of shorter time from infection to onward transmission and more presymptomatic transmission, but similarly effective when based on 7.5 days.

SPS commentary:

According to a commentary, mathematical models can help decision makers to adopt an evidence-based approach to addressing the difficult dilemmas faced during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, they should go beyond addressing strictly epidemiological questions, as the pandemic has affected almost every aspect of individual and collective lives, and people’s own reactions to the pandemic shape the outbreaks they experience. It calls on researchers to broaden their focus to developing models that explicitly include relevant social processes, equity considerations, and economic impacts in the model structure.


The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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