Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study
In cohort study (1205 general practices), QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for covid-19 deaths & hospital admissions. Absolute risks will change in line with infection rate & extent of social distancing measures.
Source:
British Medical Journal
SPS commentary:
Editorial discusses the QCOVID risk prediction model for covid-19 related mortality for use in the general population and the 4C mortality score for use on admission to hospital, noting that these models are of higher quality than others published to date, having been developed using ample sample sizes, with generally appropriate modelling choices, and suitably internally validated and reported. Nevertheless, it urges caution in their use, given the rapidly changing nature of the disease and its management, which requires these models to be regularly updated and their performance monitored closely over time and space. Care must also be taken when interpreting the predictions generated by these models: they reflect the risk for a patient taking similar measures, and receiving similar care, to similar patients in the past, not the risk to a patient if no actions are taken.