The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation
This modelling study highlights the substantial health and economic value of introducing Covid-19 vaccination and provides early insights about possible future post-vaccination scenarios from an economic and epidemiological perspective.
Source:
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
SPS commentary:
A related Comment notes this is the first full economic evaluation of different vaccination scenarios compared with an unmitigated epidemic, with varying degrees of physical distancing. It notes that in the best-case scenario (95% vaccine efficacy and 3-year protection against infection), requirements for increased physical distancing are minimal. In the worst-case scenario (50% efficacy; 45-week protection against disease but not infection), recurrent epidemics will occur with an ongoing need for physical distancing. The authors comment that “While we do not yet know if herd immunity is possible, only the use of high-efficacy vaccines (at least 80–90% against all infection) can possibly achieve it, especially if children can also be vaccinated.”